acting like an Academy member

The HFPA gave out their awards yesterday with hopefuls ending on their predictable slots. Hudson, Murphy, and Dreamgirls, plus Scorsese scoring it for The Departed. Babel's won didn't come much as a surprise after all except best pic were announced. The lead in noms couldn't just go home empty-handed you know. Mirren and Whitaker just about locks in their Oscar chances after sweeping the major acting nods.

The Academy though has entered their ballots last Saturday so the Globe wins couldn't in any way affect the Academy nominations. With the Globes ending in much lesser flair, I will play the biggest schmuck of a predicter and see if my list coincides with the Academy's come Jan. 23.


Best Picture -- The Departed, Dreamgirls, Babel, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen

If not for the Globe win, Babel's chances of getting into the noms are slim. After doubting its chances, Dreamgirls of course is a sure lock after yesterday's win. But then again, no one knows. Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Children and United 93 (which won LA Film Critics and Nat'l Society of Flim Critics awards) are possible toss-ins.

Last year's Crash surprise makes it difficult to have a final say, but I still say The Departed is a clear front-runner. It has both: commercial success and critical acclaim.

Best Director -- Martin Scorsese (The Departed), Bill Condon (Dreamgirls), Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu (Babel), Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton (Little Miss Sunshine), Stephen Frears (The Queen)

I'm following last year's director-picture pattern, but if Letters gets in, Clint will be there. The Condon snub and dual noms for Clint in the Globes is really nothing but dumb. Much love for Marty! Give him the fuckin' Oscar.

Best Actor -- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland), Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Sascha Baron Cohen's win might ruin the chances of Gosling, but everybody loved Ryan's perf and not giving him a nom will be a shame. Besides it looks like Ryan is the new Adrien Brody in this category and he might just go home with Uncle Oscar. Remember that during that time, Brody was up against heavyweights as Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis. Forest Whitaker will win but I like to be Leo.

Best Actress -- Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Now, Penelope Cruz can put to shame Tom Cruise's endless Oscar-whoring. This category is a pretty lock-in. Entertainment Weekly labeled it as the year of the silver foxes (referring of course to Mirren, Streep and Dench). Kate's nom doesn't really come as a surprise. I would love for Maggie Gylenhaal in Sherrybaby, to be finally recognized. But of course, Helen Mirren gives the perf of a lifetime.

Best Supp Actor -- Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Mark Wahlberg (The Departed), Djimoun Honsou (Blood Diamond), Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), Jackie Earl Haley (Little Children)

This is a very difficult category because a lot of notable performances for supporting roles have surfaced this year. The Departed is undoubtedly the best ensemble cast and Nicholson and Wahlberg deserves to be nommed. Murphy is in coz of the Globes. But I could easily replace him and Honsou for Adam Beach (Flags of our Fathers), James McAvoy (The Last King of Scotland), Brad Pitt (Babel) or Michael Sheen (The Queen).

Best Supp Actress -- Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Rinku Kikuchi (Babel), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Adriana Barraza (Babel), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)

All eyes might be on Hudson after the Globe win. Though Cate is nommed for Scandal, she also joins the women ensemble of Babel who I'd like to bag it. Academy has much love for kids so I'd predict Breslin's unforgettable performance to be noticed. Plus, the Globe nod might also give Emily Blunt a push.

Adapted Screenplay -- Todd Field, Tom Perotta (Little Children), William Monahan (The Departed), Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal), Bill Condon (Dreamgirls), Jason Reitman (Thank you for Smoking). Though I would like to see Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men) in this category.

Original Screenplay -- Peter Morgan (The Queen), Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine), Guillermo Arriaga (Babel), Paul Greengrass (United 93), Pedro Almodovar (Volver)

photo courtesy of Oscarwatch.com