Last year, it was a couple of hours before I did my usual Oscar roundup. I dunno, it’s the usual cramming, gets me on my nerves. Jolt energy to my fingers. And apparently, I seem to still give a shit about this prognostication. Anyway, let’s get this done and over with. The 2010 Oscars offers a huge format change. The Academy will choose a Best Picture from 10 nominees, something that has not been done since the 30s or 40s. We have to expect something new each year, which began last year, all in the name of ratings. People don’t gather around their boob tubes to watch stupid award shows anymore unless they see someone or something familiar. Everybody’s a sucker for Brangelina. It’s what ups the ratings.
Coming up with 10 seems to make matters complicated and difficult for the AMPAS, but with this year’s race, it actually isn’t. Make it 20, it wouldn’t matter too, because it’s always been the pimpin’. Let’s start with the three likelihoods. I threw in Inglorious Basterds for the big smackdown between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, because it has its precursor, namely the SAG. There are a lot of actors in the Academy, and the Basterds won ensemble. That’s still a lot to consider. Numerically though, it’s The Hurt Locker’s to lose, gunning down, PGA, DGA and the rest of the major precursors. Avatar, well, because it’s the biggest in whatever. Talk about grandiosity, Mr. Cameron. The Globes also gave it a boost. You have hubby and ex-wife battling it out for director. So that’s a big marketing pitch already. I would like to give it to Tarantino, deservedly so, but I wouldn’t hurt if its Kathryn Bigelow. Shaming the opposite in a male-dominated genre is big enough a feat. Plus The Hurt Locker is really intense. Wonderfully lensed and acted as well, so you’ve got Jeremy Renner there. Saw it early last year so I didn’t wonder.
I still wish it would be Carey. For toppling Emma Thompson in that unforgettable scene, I’d give it to her. But it looks like Sandra written all over. Meryl should not have been nominated to save her from this horrendous crime, should Sandra win. Sandra definitely has the ace. She made history by becoming the only actress to really score big at the box office. That could clinch the gold. It’s not even the acting, she was much better in Crash.
It’s also Jeff’s to lose. It would really hurt if it’s given to say Colin Firth who does some really fine acting from among the crop this year. But Jeff in Crazy Heart is so strong, such an affecting performance, which I saw only yesterday and glad that I did. Chrissakes, let’s give it to the dude.
The supports are pretty much cut out to Mo’Nique and Christoph Waltz. Man, I can’t get over that amusing Nazi, and that opening scene, and the “bingo” scene, and every scene he inhabits. And I was terrified by Mo’Nique’s perferformance, the last scene was way up the top of the league. The supports have been inclined much towards the villainous recently, with Javier Bardem the other year.
I’m really interested in seeing the foreign film noms, which are so inaccessibly hard in the “popular” market. I can’t make a prediction, but it looks intense, base on the trailers alone. The techs are pretty much The Hurt Locker’s or Avatar’s, having at least 9 noms. Up in the Air, which was a frontrunner way back when, would I guess settle for an adapted, though I’d really, really want Nick Hornby’s adaptation of An Education to win. If Quentin’s not gonna go up for the Director nod, I’m sure he’ll be up there for the original screenplay. It better be or I’ll smash some Nazi heads, or carve them ala-Aldo Raine.
